Nico Collins

I split the difference and I'll say so plainly. The model had him WR15, the market has him WR5, and I landed at WR7 — 9.1 targets a game is real but I'm not confident enough in 13.2 games to go all the way.

REASON REWRITTEN 22 Aug; the number is unchanged and still wanted. THE OLD TEXT'S NUMBERS HAVE GONE STALE, which is the Caleb Williams failure and the reason this row was re-read. It said 'raised from the model's 162.4 (WR15) toward ECR WR5 and consensus WR5, but not all the way' -- the model has since fallen to 150.0 and WR21, so the override is doing considerably more lifting than its own text describes, and the destination it aims short of is no longer where the markets are either (ADP now WR11). WHAT SURVIVES IS THE RATE, and it is the defensible part: 13.79/g against a decay-0.50 weighted history of 13.48, i.e. essentially his own record, where the model's native 11.36 sits 2.12 BELOW anything he has produced. So this is a HISTORY anchor, not a market anchor, and the reason now says so. It lands WR7 against ADP WR11; that is a consequence of where the receiver tier breaks rather than a target, and no rank is claimed.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.