Mike Washington
LVROOKIE R4RB63 · overall #209 · tier 9 · age 23
Projected points
91
6.1/gm
Value over replacement
-17
repl 116
Range
73–109
sd 18
Week
5.0
vs KC
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-09-03
Raised on Matt's read that Jeanty's injury costs him about one game and that Washington takes materially more work than the August depth chart implied. A RATE CLAIM, so fantasy_points only and no games -- his 14.9 games are not in dispute, his share of the backfield is. NOT WRITTEN AS A VACANCY, deliberately. The obvious mechanism is a games claim on Jeanty, which would let redistribute_vacancy promote the depth-2 man by measured coefficients rather than by hand. It does not apply: one missed game is no vacancy, and the model ALREADY has Jeanty at 12.4 games with injury_games_mult 1.00 -- his Questionable tag is damping nothing, so 12.4 is his own durability line and is if anything pessimistic against missing one game. The claim here is about role, not absence. SIZED, NOT ASSERTED. 91.0 over 14.9 games is 6.11/g against a native 2.57, and lands level with Tyler Allgeier (6.10) and just under Justice Hill (6.40) and Blake Corum (6.62) -- an ordinary RB2 line, not a breakout. It scales his carries about 2.96 -> 7.0, taking the Las Vegas back room from 30.6 to 34.7 a game against a league median of 30.1 and a p90 of 37.9, so the room can fund it. Team RB carries exceeding proj_rush_plays_pg is true on 32 of 32 teams and is not the test. Lands RB55, between ECR RB51 and ADP RB58, rather than conceding either. Weight 1.0 pins him, which in a role still settling is the cost worth knowing: re-read this before trusting it if the Las Vegas split moves again.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 27
- Carries
- 106
- Receptions
- 21
- Rec yards
- 145
- Rush yards
- 458
- Rush TD
- 3.3
- Rec TD
- 0.7
- Total TD
- 4.0
- Games projected
- 14.9
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- –
- Games of history
- 0
- Age multiplier
- 1.000
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.6
- Projected plays / game
- 60.9
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- -1.08
- OL pass protection
- -0.32
- OL continuity
- 50%
- 2TE rate
- 42%
- 3WR rate
- 58%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 49%
- Run friendly
- +0.59
- Scheme creativity
- -0.05
- Play action / motion
- 22% / 53%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach, clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 47
- Effective contributors
- 1.32
- Top player's share
- 87%
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 1.53
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- KC,NE,BUF
- Window matchup
- -0.34
- Opponents after
- LA,NYJ,SF
- After matchup
- -0.00
- Flip edge
- -0.34
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 13
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.00
Last season game log
week by week
No 2025-season weekly record for Mike Washington — rookies and players who did not record a stat line have none.