Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

RB

Mike Washington

LVROOKIE R4

RB63 · overall #209 · tier 9 · age 23

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Projected points

91

6.1/gm

Value over replacement

-17

repl 116

Range

73–109

sd 18

Week

5.0

vs KC

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-09-03

Raised on Matt's read that Jeanty's injury costs him about one game and that Washington takes materially more work than the August depth chart implied. A RATE CLAIM, so fantasy_points only and no games -- his 14.9 games are not in dispute, his share of the backfield is. NOT WRITTEN AS A VACANCY, deliberately. The obvious mechanism is a games claim on Jeanty, which would let redistribute_vacancy promote the depth-2 man by measured coefficients rather than by hand. It does not apply: one missed game is no vacancy, and the model ALREADY has Jeanty at 12.4 games with injury_games_mult 1.00 -- his Questionable tag is damping nothing, so 12.4 is his own durability line and is if anything pessimistic against missing one game. The claim here is about role, not absence. SIZED, NOT ASSERTED. 91.0 over 14.9 games is 6.11/g against a native 2.57, and lands level with Tyler Allgeier (6.10) and just under Justice Hill (6.40) and Blake Corum (6.62) -- an ordinary RB2 line, not a breakout. It scales his carries about 2.96 -> 7.0, taking the Las Vegas back room from 30.6 to 34.7 a game against a league median of 30.1 and a p90 of 37.9, so the room can fund it. Team RB carries exceeding proj_rush_plays_pg is true on 32 of 32 teams and is not the test. Lands RB55, between ECR RB51 and ADP RB58, rather than conceding either. Weight 1.0 pins him, which in a role still settling is the cost worth knowing: re-read this before trusting it if the Las Vegas split moves again.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
1.8
Carries / game
7.1
Receptions / game
1.4
Rec yards / game
10
Rush yards / game
31
Rush TD / game
0.22
Rec TD / game
0.05
Total TD / game
0.27
Games projected
14.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
–
Games of history
0
Age multiplier
1.000
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.6
Projected plays / game
60.9
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-1.08
OL pass protection
-0.32
OL continuity
50%
2TE rate
42%
3WR rate
58%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
+0.59
Scheme creativity
-0.05
Play action / motion
22% / 53%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach, clear lead
Ambiguity score
47
Effective contributors
1.32
Top player's share
87%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
1.53

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
KC,NE,BUF
Window matchup
-0.34
Opponents after
LA,NYJ,SF
After matchup
-0.00
Flip edge
-0.34
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.00

Last season game log

week by week

No 2025-season weekly record for Mike Washington — rookies and players who did not record a stat line have none.