Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Mike Evans

SF

WR26 · overall #70 · tier 6 · age 33

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Projected points

132

9.9/gm

Value over replacement

33

repl 119

Range

47–217

sd 85

Week

9.7

vs DEN

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-08-22

RE-STATED 22 Aug. The claim is unchanged and is the 6 Aug one: WR29 (ADP 29, ECR 17). What changed is that the row no longer delivered it. An override writes an ABSOLUTE season total onto a board that rebuilds four times a day, so the RANK it buys drifts as the field moves around it and nothing re-derives it -- this one had drifted to WR22 against its stated WR29. 131.9 is the total that lands WR29 on the 22 Aug board, solved against the other WRs jointly (six other overrides were lifted the same day, which moved the pool). IT WILL DRIFT AGAIN. fng.board_audit now parses the rank out of this reason and warns on every rebuild when the board stops matching it, which is the only reason re-pricing is worth doing rather than lifting the row.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
6.8
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
4.1
Rec yards / game
54
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.56
Total TD / game
0.56
Games projected
13.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
14.3
Games of history
54
Age multiplier
0.750
Usage carryover
0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.5
Projected plays / game
59.5
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
-0.01
OL pass protection
-0.56
OL continuity
78%
2TE rate
17%
3WR rate
45%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
+0.64
Scheme creativity
+0.36
Play action / motion
23% / 70%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
4.15
Top player's share
36%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
DEN,SEA,WAS
Window matchup
-0.41
Opponents after
ATL,LV
After matchup
+0.14
Flip edge
-0.54
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
8
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-1.15

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

8

Points

84.8

Per game

10.60

17-gm pace

180

Best / worst

19.2 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
110.1WR388551000
210.6WR4311556000
313.3WR289433100
70.0WR103400000
1519.2WR11126132000
1614.1WR239531100
1712.1WR277331100
185.4WR512234000