QB
Michael Penix Jr.
ATLQB19 · overall #156 · tier 5 · age 26
Projected points
162
15.3/gm
Value over replacement
-3
repl 250
Range
124–200
sd 38
Week
10.8
@ NO
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Pass attempts / game
- 32.9
- Pass yards / game
- 235
- Pass TD / game
- 1.37
- Carries / game
- 2.6
- Rush yards / game
- 10
- Rush TD / game
- 0.12
- Games projected
- 10.6
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 11.8
- Games of history
- 14
- Age multiplier
- 1.038
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.6
- Projected plays / game
- 61.7
- Projected pass rate
- 56%
- OL run block
- +0.05
- OL pass protection
- +0.17
- OL continuity
- 82%
- 2TE rate
- 29%
- 3WR rate
- 64%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 40%
- Run friendly
- +0.35
- Scheme creativity
- -0.20
- Play action / motion
- 17% / 66%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 43
- Effective contributors
- –
- Top player's share
- –
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.45
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy low
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- NO,BAL,CHI
- Window matchup
- +0.13
- Opponents after
- SF,TB,CIN
- After matchup
- +0.32
- Flip edge
- -0.19
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 11
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.61
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
9
Points
120.3
Per game
13.36
17-gm pace
227
Best / worst
24.0 / 3.8
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Cmp | Att | Pa Yds | Pa TD | INT | Ru Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24.0 | QB10 | 27 | 42 | 298 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | QB31 | 13 | 21 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 3 | 3.8 | QB31 | 18 | 36 | 172 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| 4 | 18.7 | QB13 | 20 | 26 | 313 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 6 | 14.6 | QB20 | 20 | 32 | 250 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 7 | 12.2 | QB17 | 21 | 38 | 241 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 9 | 22.7 | QB11 | 22 | 37 | 221 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| 10 | 11.0 | QB19 | 12 | 28 | 177 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | 7.9 | QB25 | 13 | 16 | 175 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 |