Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Matthew Golden

GB

WR55 · overall #115 · tier 9 · age 23

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Projected points

113

8.0/gm

Value over replacement

12

repl 115

Range

81–144

sd 32

Week

6.4

@ MIN

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
84
Carries
13
Receptions
53
Rec yards
665
Rush yards
64
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
2.2
Total TD
2.2
Games projected
14.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
5.3
Games of history
14
Age multiplier
1.052
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.1
Projected plays / game
60.4
Projected pass rate
55%
OL run block
-0.65
OL pass protection
-0.47
OL continuity
64%
2TE rate
32%
3WR rate
60%
1st-down pass rate
41%
Run friendly
+0.90
Scheme creativity
+0.53
Play action / motion
23% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
5.34
Top player's share
30%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
MIN,NYJ,ATL
Window matchup
+0.38
Opponents after
TB,CHI,DAL
After matchup
+0.40
Flip edge
-0.02
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.10

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

14

Points

55.5

Per game

3.96

17-gm pace

67

Best / worst

11.7 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
12.62216000
21.52000215
38.14452039
48.86558015
611.753860216
75.74437000
81.9334000
91.9329000
112.93124000
140.0100000
157.04355000
160.4100024
171.73112000
181.3318000