MarShawn Lloyd
GBRB29 · overall #68 · tier 7 · age 25
Projected points
130
10.0/gm
Value over replacement
36
repl 116
Range
114–146
sd 16
Week
6.1
@ TB
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-09-01
REPLACES THE 22 AUG CUT, WHOSE PREMISE IS DEAD. That row put him RB53 partly on being 'behind on the depth chart'; he is now Green Bay's DEPTH 1 with Jacobs fourth and hurt. The other half of it stands and is why this is not higher -- he has one career game, so 10.15/g is a lead-back rate written on almost no record. 13.0 games rather than a full season because a man with his injury history holding the job all year is the optimistic case, not the expected one. ROOM-CONSTRAINED 1 Sep: overrides run AFTER normalize_team_carries, so writing four in one backfield inflated Green Bay from 29.1 car/g to 37.8, third-highest of 32 against a median of 29.3. Jacobs being hurt moves carries around the room; it does not create them. All four are priced to hold the room near 30.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 36
- Carries
- 174
- Receptions
- 28
- Rec yards
- 195
- Rush yards
- 686
- Rush TD
- 3.6
- Rec TD
- 0.4
- Total TD
- 4.0
- Games projected
- 13.0
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 2.8
- Games of history
- 1
- Age multiplier
- 1.000
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 35.1
- Projected plays / game
- 60.5
- Projected pass rate
- 55%
- OL run block
- -0.62
- OL pass protection
- -0.44
- OL continuity
- 60%
- 2TE rate
- 32%
- 3WR rate
- 60%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 41%
- Run friendly
- +0.91
- Scheme creativity
- +0.54
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 59%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 35
- Effective contributors
- 2.10
- Top player's share
- 61%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.37
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- TB,CHI,DAL
- Window matchup
- +0.09
- Opponents after
- DET,CAR,NE
- After matchup
- -0.05
- Flip edge
- +0.14
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 11
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.21
Last season game log
week by week
No 2025-season weekly record for MarShawn Lloyd — rookies and players who did not record a stat line have none.