Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Luther Burden III

CHI

WR24 · overall #71 · tier 6 · age 22

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Projected points

146

10.1/gm

Value over replacement

43

repl 115

Range

94–198

sd 52

Week

9.1

@ CAR

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
6.8
Carries / game
0.5
Receptions / game
4.4
Rec yards / game
60
Rush yards / game
3
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.26
Total TD / game
0.26
Games projected
14.4
Observed pts/gm (history)
8.3
Games of history
15
Age multiplier
1.052
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.8
Projected plays / game
62.4
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
+1.37
OL pass protection
+1.06
OL continuity
82%
2TE rate
36%
3WR rate
64%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
+0.60
Scheme creativity
+0.58
Play action / motion
26% / 54%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
4.26
Top player's share
29%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
CAR,MIN,PHI
Window matchup
-0.58
Opponents after
NYJ,GB,ATL
After matchup
+0.71
Flip edge
-1.29
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.24

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

15

Points

104.4

Per game

6.96

17-gm pace

118

Best / worst

23.8 / 0.2

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
10.211-3000
21.0215000
318.333101117
40.622-4000
67.14451000
72.6212201-1
80.411-1000
106.63351000
114.25327000
127.653460115
135.66433013
149.06467013
1511.47684000
1723.898138100
186.043350110