Luther Burden III

Cut 146.0 -> 128.0 (WR26 -> ~WR39). The old override raised him TO ADP on a 'modest step up on a second-year first-rounder', which is paying full retail for the most overhyped cohort in the game. Measured on nflverse plus ADP history 2018-2025: year-2 receivers miss their ADP by a mean +15.9 ranks and a median +12, with 53% missing by 10 or more -- the worst of any career year, against rookies at -0.4. It has also got worse, +8.2 for 2018-21 against +23.8 for 2022-25. The model has him WR69 at 4.10 targets/g against a 4.00 rookie history, so 128.0 is still well ABOVE the model and only fades him below ADP 27 / ECR 33 rather than conceding the model's number. He is depth 2 behind Rome Odunze. Re-read 3 Sep, traced end to end. The model's native line is still far below this row and the year-two-receiver evidence it rests on is unchanged. Board WR36 against ADP WR28 and ECR WR27; the override is still ABOVE the model and only fades him below the market.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.