QB
Kyler Murray
MINQB12 · overall #97 · tier 4 · age 29
Projected points
194
17.1/gm
Value over replacement
17
repl 250
Range
160–227
sd 33
Week
8.9
vs MIA
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Pass attempts / game
- 32.4
- Pass yards / game
- 227
- Pass TD / game
- 1.34
- Carries / game
- 5.0
- Rush yards / game
- 26
- Rush TD / game
- 0.24
- Games projected
- 11.3
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 17.4
- Games of history
- 41
- Age multiplier
- 1.000
- Usage carryover
- 0.89
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.1
- Projected plays / game
- 61.1
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- -0.05
- OL pass protection
- +0.10
- OL continuity
- 76%
- 2TE rate
- 27%
- 3WR rate
- 63%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- -0.76
- Scheme creativity
- +0.22
- Play action / motion
- 26% / 52%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 24
- Effective contributors
- –
- Top player's share
- –
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.34
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy now, flip wk7
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- MIA,NO
- Window matchup
- +0.64
- Opponents after
- IND,DET,BUF
- After matchup
- +0.27
- Flip edge
- +0.37
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 6
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +1.05
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
5
Points
77.8
Per game
15.56
17-gm pace
264
Best / worst
18.3 / 14.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Cmp | Att | Pa Yds | Pa TD | INT | Ru Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18.3 | QB14 | 21 | 29 | 163 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| 2 | 14.0 | QB23 | 17 | 25 | 220 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| 3 | 14.1 | QB14 | 22 | 35 | 159 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| 4 | 16.1 | QB17 | 27 | 41 | 200 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| 5 | 15.3 | QB20 | 23 | 31 | 220 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 1 |