Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

QB

Kenny Pickett

CAR

QB49 · overall #548 · tier – · age 28

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Projected points

82

7.9/gm

Value over replacement

-79

repl 250

Range

48–116

sd 34

Week

2.1

vs DET

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
19.6
Pass yards / game
133
Pass TD / game
0.70
Carries / game
1.5
Rush yards / game
6
Rush TD / game
0.06
Games projected
10.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
7.0
Games of history
36
Age multiplier
1.012
Usage carryover
0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.7
Projected plays / game
60.0
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.33
OL pass protection
+0.21
OL continuity
71%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
73%
1st-down pass rate
40%
Run friendly
+0.68
Scheme creativity
-0.67
Play action / motion
21% / 40%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
–
Top player's share
–
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
DET,PHI
Window matchup
-0.12
Opponents after
TB,GB,DEN
After matchup
-0.03
Flip edge
-0.09
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
5
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.26

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

6

Points

7.7

Per game

1.29

17-gm pace

22

Best / worst

8.5 / -1.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
7-1.7QB3922800100
100.0QB3101000000
148.5QB248119710160
151.3QB3315256401270
170.6QB35221600000
18-1.0QB4214301190