Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Kaelon Black

SFROOKIE R3

RB75 · overall #372 · tier

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Projected points

47

3.2/gm

Value over replacement

-54

repl 110

Range

28–65

sd 18

Week

2.9

@ LA

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
14
Carries
53
Receptions
11
Rec yards
76
Rush yards
231
Rush TD
1.7
Rec TD
0.4
Total TD
2.1
Games projected
14.7
Observed pts/gm (history)
Games of history
0
Age multiplier
1.000
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.5
Projected plays / game
59.4
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
+0.00
OL pass protection
-0.53
OL continuity
78%
2TE rate
17%
3WR rate
45%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
+0.62
Scheme creativity
+0.36
Play action / motion
23% / 70%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
5
Effective contributors
1.54
Top player's share
77%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.18

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
LA,MIA,ARI
Window matchup
+1.34
Opponents after
DEN,SEA,WAS
After matchup
-0.41
Flip edge
+1.75
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
8
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-1.00

Last season game log

week by week

No 2025-season weekly record for Kaelon Black — rookies and players who did not record a stat line have none.