Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Kaelon Black

SFROOKIE R3

RB75 · overall #372 · tier

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Projected points

47

3.2/gm

Value over replacement

-54

repl 110

Range

28–65

sd 18

Week

2.9

@ LA

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
0.9
Carries / game
3.6
Receptions / game
0.7
Rec yards / game
5
Rush yards / game
16
Rush TD / game
0.12
Rec TD / game
0.02
Total TD / game
0.14
Games projected
14.7
Observed pts/gm (history)
Games of history
0
Age multiplier
1.000
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.5
Projected plays / game
59.4
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
+0.00
OL pass protection
-0.53
OL continuity
78%
2TE rate
17%
3WR rate
45%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
+0.62
Scheme creativity
+0.36
Play action / motion
23% / 70%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
5
Effective contributors
1.54
Top player's share
77%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.18

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
LA,MIA,ARI
Window matchup
+1.34
Opponents after
DEN,SEA,WAS
After matchup
-0.41
Flip edge
+1.75
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
8
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-1.00

Last season game log

week by week

No 2025-season weekly record for Kaelon Black — rookies and players who did not record a stat line have none.