QB
Josh Allen
BUFQB2 · overall #33 · tier 1 · age 30
Projected points
294
20.4/gm
Value over replacement
70
repl 250
Range
244–345
sd 50
Week
29.1
vs NE
The take
written by hand
The most points of any quarterback and still my QB4, which isn't a knock. He plays 15.4 games, so you're paying for weeks you would have streamed anyway, and the spot yields less than Burrow's.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Pass attempts / game
- 29.5
- Pass yards / game
- 229
- Pass TD / game
- 1.53
- Carries / game
- 6.4
- Rush yards / game
- 29
- Rush TD / game
- 0.61
- Games projected
- 14.4
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 23.6
- Games of history
- 65
- Age multiplier
- 0.981
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.7
- Projected plays / game
- 61.1
- Projected pass rate
- 55%
- OL run block
- +1.32
- OL pass protection
- +1.30
- OL continuity
- 78%
- 2TE rate
- 28%
- 3WR rate
- 65%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 40%
- Run friendly
- +0.97
- Scheme creativity
- +0.23
- Play action / motion
- 21% / 57%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 24
- Effective contributors
- –
- Top player's share
- –
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.34
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- sell high
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- NE,LA,LV
- Window matchup
- +0.34
- Opponents after
- BAL,MIN
- After matchup
- -0.72
- Flip edge
- +1.06
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 7
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.44
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
16
Points
364.6
Per game
22.79
17-gm pace
387
Best / worst
42.7 / 6.9
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Cmp | Att | Pa Yds | Pa TD | INT | Ru Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38.8 | QB1 | 33 | 46 | 394 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 30 | 2 |
| 2 | 11.8 | QB24 | 14 | 25 | 148 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| 3 | 23.0 | QB5 | 22 | 28 | 213 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| 4 | 24.9 | QB7 | 16 | 22 | 209 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 45 | 1 |
| 5 | 19.4 | QB13 | 22 | 31 | 253 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| 6 | 15.4 | QB18 | 15 | 26 | 180 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| 8 | 23.2 | QB8 | 12 | 19 | 163 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| 9 | 28.8 | QB3 | 23 | 26 | 273 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 2 |
| 10 | 19.3 | QB10 | 28 | 40 | 306 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| 11 | 42.7 | QB1 | 19 | 30 | 317 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 40 | 3 |
| 12 | 8.1 | QB21 | 24 | 34 | 253 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| 13 | 16.7 | QB14 | 15 | 23 | 123 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 1 |
| 14 | 37.8 | QB1 | 22 | 28 | 251 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 78 | 1 |
| 15 | 24.5 | QB6 | 19 | 28 | 193 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 0 |
| 16 | 6.9 | QB26 | 12 | 19 | 130 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| 17 | 23.2 | QB5 | 23 | 35 | 262 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 2 |