Jeremiyah Love
ARIROOKIE R1RB17 · overall #30 · tier 4 · age 21
Projected points
162
13.5/gm
Value over replacement
75
repl 116
Range
106–218
sd 56
Week
12.2
@ NYG
The take
written by hand
I was out on Love before the injury; the ankle is icing. Allgeier took 10 goal-line carries last year to Bijan's 11 -- and that was Bijan's third year, not a rookie -- scoring on 5. Arizona throws a ton and McBride, Harrison and Wilson take 66% of the targets. Then a brutal open: Chargers, Seahawks, 49ers, Giants, Lions, Rams, with only the Giants looking decent. Phenomenal prospect, wrong year.
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-09-03
Cut to 161.8 over 12.0 games (RB15 -> RB19), a fade of the OFFENCE and the GOAL LINE with the ankle as the tiebreak. Arizona projects 31st of 32 in rush plays (24.9/g) and 3rd in pass plays (36.8/g), threw on 62.7% of snaps last year, ran on 40.4% of early downs, and grades 25th in run blocking -- a bad room for a workhorse before you look at who else is in it. Tyler Allgeier took 10 carries inside the 5 in 2025 against Bijan Robinson's 11 on a 30.2% snap share, converting 5, and finished 8 rushing TDs on 143 carries; the beat had him on most of the first-team reps 29 Jul. Love projects 5.7 rush TDs and handing Allgeier two of them is RB25 on its own. Conner is still rostered (208 and 236 carries at 60%+ snaps, 2023-24). Allgeier has 51 straight games; Love is 21 and already hurt. BOTH FACTORS STATED so split_override cannot re-spend the claim -- 12.0 games at his own 13.48/g, the rate is not in dispute. Replaces the 17 Aug cut to 198.2/RB15, which was a points nudge that never touched the games. Re-read 3 Sep: the cited team numbers VERIFY. Arizona projects 25.1 rush plays a game, 31st of 32, and 37.1 pass plays, 3rd -- against the 24.9 and 36.8 the reason states. Premise intact.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 47
- Carries
- 189
- Receptions
- 37
- Rec yards
- 253
- Rush yards
- 815
- Rush TD
- 5.8
- Rec TD
- 1.2
- Total TD
- 7.1
- Games projected
- 12.0
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- –
- Games of history
- 0
- Age multiplier
- 1.000
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.3
- Projected plays / game
- 62.2
- Projected pass rate
- 59%
- OL run block
- -0.14
- OL pass protection
- -0.29
- OL continuity
- 51%
- 2TE rate
- 48%
- 3WR rate
- 52%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 49%
- Run friendly
- -0.40
- Scheme creativity
- +0.44
- Play action / motion
- 25% / 40%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 90
- Effective contributors
- 4.46
- Top player's share
- 32%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 2.00
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy now, flip wk7
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- NYG,DET,LA
- Window matchup
- +0.25
- Opponents after
- DEN,DAL,SEA
- After matchup
- -0.36
- Flip edge
- +0.62
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 14
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.37
Last season game log
week by week
No 2025-season weekly record for Jeremiyah Love — rookies and players who did not record a stat line have none.