Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

RB

Jeremiyah Love

ARIROOKIE R1

RB17 · overall #30 · tier 4 · age 21

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Projected points

162

13.5/gm

Value over replacement

75

repl 116

Range

106–218

sd 56

Week

12.2

@ NYG

The take

written by hand

I was out on Love before the injury; the ankle is icing. Allgeier took 10 goal-line carries last year to Bijan's 11 -- and that was Bijan's third year, not a rookie -- scoring on 5. Arizona throws a ton and McBride, Harrison and Wilson take 66% of the targets. Then a brutal open: Chargers, Seahawks, 49ers, Giants, Lions, Rams, with only the Giants looking decent. Phenomenal prospect, wrong year.

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-09-03

Cut to 161.8 over 12.0 games (RB15 -> RB19), a fade of the OFFENCE and the GOAL LINE with the ankle as the tiebreak. Arizona projects 31st of 32 in rush plays (24.9/g) and 3rd in pass plays (36.8/g), threw on 62.7% of snaps last year, ran on 40.4% of early downs, and grades 25th in run blocking -- a bad room for a workhorse before you look at who else is in it. Tyler Allgeier took 10 carries inside the 5 in 2025 against Bijan Robinson's 11 on a 30.2% snap share, converting 5, and finished 8 rushing TDs on 143 carries; the beat had him on most of the first-team reps 29 Jul. Love projects 5.7 rush TDs and handing Allgeier two of them is RB25 on its own. Conner is still rostered (208 and 236 carries at 60%+ snaps, 2023-24). Allgeier has 51 straight games; Love is 21 and already hurt. BOTH FACTORS STATED so split_override cannot re-spend the claim -- 12.0 games at his own 13.48/g, the rate is not in dispute. Replaces the 17 Aug cut to 198.2/RB15, which was a points nudge that never touched the games. Re-read 3 Sep: the cited team numbers VERIFY. Arizona projects 25.1 rush plays a game, 31st of 32, and 37.1 pass plays, 3rd -- against the 24.9 and 36.8 the reason states. Premise intact.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
47
Carries
189
Receptions
37
Rec yards
253
Rush yards
815
Rush TD
5.8
Rec TD
1.2
Total TD
7.1
Games projected
12.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
–
Games of history
0
Age multiplier
1.000
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.3
Projected plays / game
62.2
Projected pass rate
59%
OL run block
-0.14
OL pass protection
-0.29
OL continuity
51%
2TE rate
48%
3WR rate
52%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
-0.40
Scheme creativity
+0.44
Play action / motion
25% / 40%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
90
Effective contributors
4.46
Top player's share
32%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
2.00

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk7
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
NYG,DET,LA
Window matchup
+0.25
Opponents after
DEN,DAL,SEA
After matchup
-0.36
Flip edge
+0.62
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
14
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.37

Last season game log

week by week

No 2025-season weekly record for Jeremiyah Love — rookies and players who did not record a stat line have none.