RB
Jaylen Warren
PITRB21 · overall #36 · tier 5 · age 27
Projected points
171
11.6/gm
Value over replacement
64
repl 116
Range
130–212
sd 41
Week
11.0
@ CLE
The take
written by hand
12.4 carries and 3.5 targets a game, and I'm three spots ahead of the room. He finished RB16 last year, so this isn't a leap.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 3.6
- Carries / game
- 13.5
- Receptions / game
- 2.9
- Rec yards / game
- 21
- Rush yards / game
- 59
- Rush TD / game
- 0.23
- Rec TD / game
- 0.04
- Total TD / game
- 0.27
- Games projected
- 14.7
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 11.6
- Games of history
- 64
- Age multiplier
- 0.934
- Usage carryover
- 0.90
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.5
- Projected plays / game
- 61.4
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -0.51
- OL pass protection
- +0.02
- OL continuity
- 65%
- 2TE rate
- 45%
- 3WR rate
- 52%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 45%
- Run friendly
- -0.86
- Scheme creativity
- -0.29
- Play action / motion
- 21% / 51%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach
- Ambiguity score
- 86
- Effective contributors
- 2.14
- Top player's share
- 60%
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 1.91
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- CLE,IND,TB
- Window matchup
- -0.14
- Opponents after
- NO,CLE
- After matchup
- -0.09
- Flip edge
- -0.05
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 9
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.21
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
16
Points
177.1
Per game
11.07
17-gm pace
188
Best / worst
27.1 / 4.8
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11.9 | RB16 | 11 | 37 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| 2 | 13.4 | RB16 | 14 | 48 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 86 | 0 |
| 3 | 8.1 | RB25 | 18 | 47 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| 6 | 6.3 | RB25 | 11 | 52 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| 7 | 15.8 | RB9 | 16 | 127 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| 8 | 7.3 | RB26 | 13 | 62 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| 9 | 14.9 | RB6 | 16 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 10 | 9.1 | RB22 | 14 | 70 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| 11 | 6.7 | RB32 | 10 | 62 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 | 12.8 | RB13 | 18 | 68 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 10.4 | RB26 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| 14 | 12.2 | RB18 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 1 |
| 15 | 4.8 | RB39 | 12 | 33 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| 16 | 27.1 | RB3 | 14 | 143 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 | 6.4 | RB29 | 12 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 9.9 | RB17 | 14 | 66 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 0 |