Jayden Reed

Cut 22 Aug at Matt's read, as the other half of the Green Bay ordering. The board had him WR33 and Christian Watson WR37 -- Reed ABOVE the man listed in front of him -- while both markets have it firmly the other way, Watson WR28/WR23 against Reed WR44/WR43. The rate is not the problem: 9.20/g against a decay-weighted 9.75 is a 0.55 discount, in line with how the model treats Watson. What carries him is his OLDER seasons. At the WR decay of 0.50 his 2023 (11.45/g over 16 games) and 2024 (10.09 over 17) outweigh a 2025 that was five games at 7.80 before injury, so the blend describes the player he was in Green Bay's previous offence rather than the depth-2 slot man he is now. WR43, level with both markets.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.