Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Jameson Williams

DET

WR29 · overall #64 · tier 7 · age 25

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Projected points

141

10.6/gm

Value over replacement

45

repl 115

Range

90–192

sd 51

Week

9.9

vs NO

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
6.2
Carries / game
0.4
Receptions / game
3.8
Rec yards / game
59
Rush yards / game
2
Rush TD / game
0.02
Rec TD / game
0.42
Total TD / game
0.44
Games projected
13.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
12.3
Games of history
50
Age multiplier
1.026
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.5
Projected plays / game
62.6
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.86
OL pass protection
+0.77
OL continuity
43%
2TE rate
33%
3WR rate
64%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
-0.25
Scheme creativity
-0.09
Play action / motion
28% / 60%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
59
Effective contributors
2.70
Top player's share
51%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.70

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
NO,BUF,NYJ
Window matchup
+0.98
Opponents after
CAR,ARI
After matchup
+0.27
Flip edge
+0.71
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.19

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

187.4

Per game

11.02

17-gm pace

187

Best / worst

23.4 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
14.65423013
217.842108100
35.33243000
44.7824001-3
51.5119011
615.67666100
70.0200000
914.66466100
1020.976119100
1117.77488119
120.0300000
1323.410714411-5
1413.89796017
1522.9107134100
169.59570000
174.73237000
1810.48674000