Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Jameson Williams

DET

WR23 · overall #58 · tier 5 · age 25

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Projected points

154

11.0/gm

Value over replacement

50

repl 119

Range

102–206

sd 52

Week

8.1

@ CAR

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
6.5
Carries / game
0.4
Receptions / game
4.0
Rec yards / game
61
Rush yards / game
2
Rush TD / game
0.02
Rec TD / game
0.42
Total TD / game
0.44
Games projected
14.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
12.3
Games of history
50
Age multiplier
1.026
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.5
Projected plays / game
62.4
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.69
OL pass protection
+0.61
OL continuity
43%
2TE rate
33%
3WR rate
64%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
-0.24
Scheme creativity
-0.09
Play action / motion
28% / 60%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
59
Effective contributors
2.70
Top player's share
51%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.70

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
CAR,ARI
Window matchup
+0.38
Opponents after
GB,MIN,MIA
After matchup
+0.06
Flip edge
+0.32
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.22

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

17

Points

154.9

Per game

9.11

17-gm pace

155

Best / worst

19.9 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
12.6WR745423013
216.8WR742108100
34.3WR483243000
43.7WR55824001-3
51.0WR87119011
612.6WR147666100
70.0WR101200000
912.6WR126466100
1017.9WR376119100
1115.7WR57488119
120.0WR97300000
1319.9WR410714411-5
1410.3WR179796017
1519.4WR3107134100
167.0WR339570000
173.7WR493237000
187.4WR238674000