Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

James Conner

ARI

RB56 · overall #150 · tier 9 · age 31

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Projected points

72

6.4/gm

Value over replacement

-5

repl 110

Range

18–127

sd 55

Week

3.9

@ LAC

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
2.2
Carries / game
6.7
Receptions / game
1.8
Rec yards / game
13
Rush yards / game
28
Rush TD / game
0.27
Rec TD / game
0.06
Total TD / game
0.33
Games projected
11.2
Observed pts/gm (history)
15.1
Games of history
45
Age multiplier
0.857
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.3
Projected plays / game
61.8
Projected pass rate
59%
OL run block
-0.66
OL pass protection
-0.78
OL continuity
0%
2TE rate
48%
3WR rate
52%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
-0.40
Scheme creativity
+0.44
Play action / motion
25% / 40%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
90
Effective contributors
4.46
Top player's share
32%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
2.00

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
LAC,SEA,SF
Window matchup
-1.47
Opponents after
NYG,DET,LA
After matchup
-0.17
Flip edge
-1.29
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
14
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.16

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

3

Points

29.3

Per game

9.77

17-gm pace

166

Best / worst

12.4 / 5.2

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
112.4123904451
211.71134111180
35.2922043150