Greg Dulcich
MIATE29 · overall #185 · tier 6 · age 26
Projected points
62
6.1/gm
Value over replacement
-9
repl 112
Range
24–99
sd 37
Week
3.3
@ MIN
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Cut 22 Aug from the audit's list -- TE19 against ECR TE31, no ADP. THE ONLY ONE OF THE THREE WHERE THE MODEL IS ABOVE THE PLAYER'S OWN RECORD, and by a lot: 7.01/g against a decay-0.65 weighted 4.57, +2.44. His three seasons are 2.00/g on 2 games, 1.33 on 4 and 5.76 on 9 -- he has never played a full season and has never cleared 6 points a game. He is Miami's listed TE1 and the room behind him is empty (1.7, 1.7, 1.2 targets a game), so the depth chart hands him a starter's share on a record that does not support one. TE27, above ECR TE31 because the job is genuinely his, but not priced as a producer he has never been.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 48
- Carries
- 1
- Receptions
- 33
- Rec yards
- 357
- Rush yards
- -1
- Rush TD
- 0.0
- Rec TD
- 1.3
- Total TD
- 1.3
- Games projected
- 10.1
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 6.3
- Games of history
- 25
- Age multiplier
- 1.030
- Usage carryover
- 0.90
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 35.6
- Projected plays / game
- 60.1
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -1.09
- OL pass protection
- -0.47
- OL continuity
- 69%
- 2TE rate
- 25%
- 3WR rate
- 46%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 42%
- Run friendly
- -0.06
- Scheme creativity
- +1.42
- Play action / motion
- 26% / 73%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach, committee
- Ambiguity score
- 98
- Effective contributors
- 3.63
- Top player's share
- 33%
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 2.55
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- MIN,CIN
- Window matchup
- -0.65
- Opponents after
- NYJ,NE,DET
- After matchup
- +0.20
- Flip edge
- -0.86
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 6
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.73
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
9
Points
49.8
Per game
5.53
17-gm pace
94
Best / worst
13.6 / 2.7
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7.4 | TE20 | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| 10 | 2.7 | TE33 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| 11 | 2.8 | TE33 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| 13 | 3.4 | TE32 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| 14 | 5.6 | TE19 | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| 15 | 5.6 | TE21 | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| 16 | 4.1 | TE28 | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| 17 | 13.6 | TE4 | 6 | 5 | 58 | 1 |
| 18 | 4.6 | TE26 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 0 |