Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Drew Allar

PITROOKIE R3

QB77 · overall #687 · tier

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Projected points

38

2.5/gm

Value over replacement

-206

repl 261

Range

20–55

sd 18

Week

2.4

vs ATL

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Pass attempts
74
Pass yards
531
Pass TD
3.1
Carries
0
Rush yards
46
Rush TD
0.0
Games projected
14.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
Games of history
0
Age multiplier
1.000
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.5
Projected plays / game
61.4
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-0.48
OL pass protection
+0.07
OL continuity
79%
2TE rate
45%
3WR rate
52%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
-0.86
Scheme creativity
-0.30
Play action / motion
21% / 51%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach
Ambiguity score
66
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
ATL,NE,CIN
Window matchup
+0.10
Opponents after
CLE,IND,TB
After matchup
+0.11
Flip edge
-0.01
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
9
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.16

Last season game log

week by week

No 2025-season weekly record for Drew Allar — rookies and players who did not record a stat line have none.