RB
David Montgomery
HOURB24 · overall #41 · tier 6 · age 29
Projected points
165
11.5/gm
Value over replacement
61
repl 116
Range
115–215
sd 50
Week
12.9
vs DAL
The take
written by hand
Purely a fade of Houston's offensive line with an older back. 12.4 carries a game at 29 on a new team, age curve at 0.90. When backs go, they go fast.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 3.0
- Carries / game
- 12.4
- Receptions / game
- 2.4
- Rec yards / game
- 19
- Rush yards / game
- 50
- Rush TD / game
- 0.56
- Rec TD / game
- 0.02
- Total TD / game
- 0.58
- Games projected
- 14.3
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 11.9
- Games of history
- 61
- Age multiplier
- 0.895
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 32.9
- Projected plays / game
- 61.9
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -1.37
- OL pass protection
- -1.19
- OL continuity
- 64%
- 2TE rate
- 20%
- 3WR rate
- 76%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- -0.36
- Scheme creativity
- -0.30
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 53%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 54
- Effective contributors
- 2.86
- Top player's share
- 49%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.63
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- DAL,TEN,JAX
- Window matchup
- +0.11
- Opponents after
- NYG,LAC
- After matchup
- +0.01
- Flip edge
- +0.11
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 8
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.70
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
142.9
Per game
8.41
17-gm pace
143
Best / worst
28.4 / 1.2
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4.3 | RB37 | 11 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| 2 | 12.1 | RB20 | 11 | 57 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 3 | 28.4 | RB2 | 12 | 151 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | RB60 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 17.2 | RB9 | 18 | 65 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 6 | 6.1 | RB26 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| 7 | 3.9 | RB37 | 13 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| 9 | 9.0 | RB21 | 11 | 40 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| 10 | 9.1 | RB22 | 15 | 71 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 3.7 | RB42 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| 12 | 3.7 | RB41 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| 13 | 10.8 | RB24 | 8 | 32 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| 14 | 13.3 | RB15 | 6 | 60 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| 15 | 9.2 | RB25 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 1.4 | RB60 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 4.0 | RB39 | 10 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| 18 | 5.5 | RB32 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |