Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

RB

DJ Giddens

IND

RB102 · overall #337 · tier – · age 23

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Projected points

44

3.6/gm

Value over replacement

-44

repl 116

Range

36–51

sd 7

Week

1.3

@ WAS

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-09-03

Cut 22 Aug -- RB62 against ECR RB82, 4.86/g against a weighted 1.92, +2.94. Almost no usage history, so the projection was a depth slot and a prior rather than anything the player has done. Same shape as MarShawn Lloyd. TARGET ADOPTED AT RB94 ON 3 SEP, not re-priced back to the stated RB74. The reason argued from him being DEPTH 2 in Indianapolis behind Jonathan Taylor; he is depth 3 now, behind Taylor and Seth McGowan, so the premise moved further in the direction the cut was already going. Sleeper projects him at 27.0 points against our 43.5, so the one market that updates daily also has us high rather than low. Adopting rather than re-pricing because raising him back to RB74 would argue against both facts that have arrived since. This is the Lloyd remedy -- take the new landing spot deliberately and say why it is the better answer -- and NOT the forbidden one of copying the board into the target to silence the check. If anything he is still high: at 5.41 car/g he out-carries the depth-2 man by 4.46, which no gate catches because both are undraftable.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
9
Carries
66
Receptions
6
Rec yards
46
Rush yards
275
Rush TD
1.1
Rec TD
0.0
Total TD
1.1
Games projected
12.1
Observed pts/gm (history)
1.9
Games of history
5
Age multiplier
1.045
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.7
Projected plays / game
61.8
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.69
OL pass protection
+0.76
OL continuity
81%
2TE rate
35%
3WR rate
65%
1st-down pass rate
48%
Run friendly
+0.12
Scheme creativity
+0.53
Play action / motion
31% / 50%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
1
Effective contributors
1.32
Top player's share
87%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.11

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
WAS,PIT,TEN
Window matchup
+0.35
Opponents after
MIN,JAX,DAL
After matchup
+0.23
Flip edge
+0.12
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.23

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

5

Points

9.6

Per game

1.92

17-gm pace

33

Best / worst

4.1 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
14.1RB40124100000
20.0RB750001000
30.3RB721300000
52.2RB4952201000
183.0RB5583000000