Christian Watson

Raised 22 Aug at Matt's read, and this RESTORES a row I lifted this morning. The 6 Aug override read 'Raised to WR31 (ADP 31, ECR 28)'; I lifted it as a thin market pin with an 11-rank drift, which was defensible on its own terms and missed that it was holding Green Bay's pecking order together. Same mistake as De'Von Achane earlier today: I asked whether the row still did anything and not what the board looked like without it. THE MODEL IS NOT WRONG ABOUT HIS RATE -- 9.08/g against a decay-weighted 9.46 is only -0.38, and Reed's is -0.55, so both are treated alike. The disagreement is about ROLE. The board reads Green Bay as a flat committee, and the giveaway is that depth-1 Watson projects FEWER targets (5.43/g) than depth-3 Matthew Golden (6.04). Both markets read him as the WR1 instead: ADP WR28, ECR WR23, against Reed at WR44 and WR43. WR26, between the two markets. His 2025 supports the direction -- 11.49/g on 61.1 receiving yards, his best of three seasons -- and his games stay at 12.4 on a 0.706 availability record, which is the real reason to stop short of ECR's WR23.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.