RB
Christian McCaffrey
SFRB3 · overall #3 · tier 1 · age 30
Projected points
242
18.7/gm
Value over replacement
153
repl 110
Range
203–281
sd 39
Week
14.8
@ LA
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 5.9
- Carries / game
- 16.7
- Receptions / game
- 4.7
- Rec yards / game
- 37
- Rush yards / game
- 72
- Rush TD / game
- 0.50
- Rec TD / game
- 0.26
- Total TD / game
- 0.76
- Games projected
- 12.9
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 23.5
- Games of history
- 54
- Age multiplier
- 0.876
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 35.5
- Projected plays / game
- 59.4
- Projected pass rate
- 56%
- OL run block
- +0.00
- OL pass protection
- -0.53
- OL continuity
- 78%
- 2TE rate
- 17%
- 3WR rate
- 45%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- +0.62
- Scheme creativity
- +0.36
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 70%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 5
- Effective contributors
- 1.54
- Top player's share
- 77%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.18
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy now, flip wk4
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- LA,MIA,ARI
- Window matchup
- +1.34
- Opponents after
- DEN,SEA,WAS
- After matchup
- -0.41
- Flip edge
- +1.75
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 8
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -1.00
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
314.6
Per game
18.51
17-gm pace
315
Best / worst
32.1 / 5.7
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14.2 | 22 | 69 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| 2 | 16.7 | 13 | 55 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 52 | 1 |
| 3 | 14.0 | 17 | 52 | 0 | 15 | 10 | 88 | 0 |
| 4 | 20.1 | 17 | 49 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 92 | 1 |
| 5 | 19.9 | 22 | 57 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 82 | 1 |
| 6 | 17.1 | 17 | 54 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| 7 | 32.1 | 24 | 129 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| 8 | 6.8 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| 9 | 29.3 | 28 | 106 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 67 | 1 |
| 10 | 9.6 | 12 | 30 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| 11 | 30.1 | 13 | 81 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| 12 | 20.2 | 24 | 89 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| 13 | 13.4 | 20 | 53 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| 15 | 14.7 | 22 | 73 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 | 26.6 | 21 | 117 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 29 | 2 |
| 17 | 24.1 | 23 | 140 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| 18 | 5.7 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 34 | 0 |