Chris Moore

BAL

WR216 · overall #496 · tier – · age 33

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Projected points

2.6/gm

Value over replacement

-69

repl 119

Range

0–86

sd 48

Week

4.1

vs TEN

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Per game Season total

Targets / game: 1.8
Carries / game: 0.2
Receptions / game: 1.1
Rec yards / game: 15
Rush yards / game: 1
Rush TD / game: 0.00
Rec TD / game: 0.05
Total TD / game: 0.05
Games projected: 14.4
Observed pts/gm (history): 4.5
Games of history: 40
Age multiplier: 0.750
Usage carryover: 0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 33.9
Projected plays / game: 60.2
Projected pass rate: 53%
OL run block: +0.50
OL pass protection: -0.17
OL continuity: 57%
2TE rate: 45%
3WR rate: 34%
1st-down pass rate: 46%
Run friendly: +0.69
Scheme creativity: +0.62
Play action / motion: 23% / 53%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: new head coach, committee
Ambiguity score: 93
Effective contributors: 2.62
Top player's share: 56%
New play-caller: yes
Variance multiplier: 2.14

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: sell high
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: TEN,ATL,CLE
Window matchup: +0.60
Opponents after: CIN,BUF,JAX
After matchup: -0.23
Flip edge: +0.84
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 13
Playoff schedule (15-17): -0.08

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

27.6

Per game

2.76

17-gm pace

Best / worst

10.6 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds	Re TD	Att	Ru Yds
1	3.4	WR58	1	1	34	0	0	0
3	2.5	WR72	2	2	25	0	0	0
4	0.9	WR100	3	0	0	0	1	9
5	0.0	WR100	1	0	0	0	0	0
6	10.6	WR16	5	3	46	1	0	0
7	5.9	WR37	5	2	59	0	0	0
10	0.0	WR93	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	2.8	WR59	5	2	28	0	0	0
16	0.0	WR118	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	1.5	WR85	1	1	15	0	0	0