Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

RB

Chris Brooks

GB

RB71 · overall #244 · tier – · age 26

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Projected points

62

4.9/gm

Value over replacement

-30

repl 116

Range

49–75

sd 13

Week

3.0

@ TB

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-09-01

Raised 1 Sep. Green Bay's DEPTH 2 behind Lloyd with Jacobs fourth and carrying a groin, and the board had him RB74 on 5.32 car/g -- a fourth-back share for a man listed second. Games left blank deliberately: he is healthy and the claim is entirely about ROLE, so the override should spend itself on the rate and not invent availability. ROOM-CONSTRAINED 1 Sep: overrides run AFTER normalize_team_carries, so writing four in one backfield inflated Green Bay from 29.1 car/g to 37.8, third-highest of 32 against a median of 29.3. Jacobs being hurt moves carries around the room; it does not create them. All four are priced to hold the room near 30. TARGET ADOPTED AT RB68, not the RB55 first written: RB55 needs about 8 car/g, and at that plus Lloyd, Johnson and a returning Jacobs the room breaks 35 again. A depth-2 back sharing with three others is a flex-adjacent piece, and RB68 is the honest ceiling here.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
2.3
Carries / game
5.1
Receptions / game
1.8
Rec yards / game
12
Rush yards / game
22
Rush TD / game
0.09
Rec TD / game
0.00
Total TD / game
0.09
Games projected
12.6
Observed pts/gm (history)
2.5
Games of history
31
Age multiplier
0.953
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.1
Projected plays / game
60.5
Projected pass rate
55%
OL run block
-0.62
OL pass protection
-0.44
OL continuity
60%
2TE rate
32%
3WR rate
60%
1st-down pass rate
41%
Run friendly
+0.91
Scheme creativity
+0.54
Play action / motion
23% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
35
Effective contributors
2.10
Top player's share
61%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.37

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
TB,CHI,DAL
Window matchup
+0.09
Opponents after
DET,CAR,NE
After matchup
-0.05
Flip edge
+0.14
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.21

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

17

Points

19.7

Per game

1.16

17-gm pace

20

Best / worst

6.1 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
10.3RB741101120
22.7RB4800043270
30.0RB760000000
40.1RB710001110
60.1RB651100000
70.0RB730001000
80.0RB700000000
92.4RB4500022240
100.0RB690000000
110.8RB631800000
122.6RB4382101150
130.9RB680002290
140.6RB630001160
151.6RB6121002160
160.4RB721400000
171.1RB6100021110
186.1RB27136100000