Brenton Strange
JAXTE20 · overall #143 · tier 5 · age 25
Projected points
99
6.9/gm
Value over replacement
-1
repl 112
Range
69–130
sd 31
Week
6.5
@ CIN
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-24
Re-priced 24 Aug to the CURRENT market, replacing the 6 Aug row that was lifted the same day. WHAT THIS IS, stated plainly so nobody mistakes it for a model finding: it is a market-matching claim and carries no independent football argument. The model natively has him TE28 on 6.17/g, and every market has him a decade of ranks higher -- ADP TE18, ECR TE17, Underdog TE18, Yahoo TE23. 99.3 = 6.94/g x 14.3 games lands TE18 (re-priced once: the first write assumed 13.8 games and his availability moved to 14.3 under the override, so the rate fell and he landed TE22 -- the NUMBER was corrected to hit the stated target rather than the target moved to where he fell), the median of those four, between Hockenson and Engram. WHY RE-PRICED RATHER THAN LEFT LIFTED: the original row's INTENT was to track the market, and its premise died only because the market moved (it quotes 'ADP 14, Sleeper 13' against today's 18 and 17). Deleting it would have abandoned the intent rather than maintained it, and left a 10-rank gap nobody had argued for. THE STANDING CAVEAT: `availability_vs_market` measured the market beating this model at every position and every stratum, so matching it is defensible -- but a row like this one goes stale by construction every time ADP moves, and ADP now refreshes daily. If these get re-read again and the market has moved once more, the honest options are to re-price again or to decide the model's own number is worth backing.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 72
- Carries
- 0
- Receptions
- 52
- Rec yards
- 529
- Rush yards
- 0
- Rush TD
- 0.0
- Rec TD
- 3.4
- Total TD
- 3.4
- Games projected
- 14.3
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 7.6
- Games of history
- 33
- Age multiplier
- 1.050
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.2
- Projected plays / game
- 61.3
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -0.72
- OL pass protection
- -0.20
- OL continuity
- 98%
- 2TE rate
- 25%
- 3WR rate
- 73%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- -0.06
- Scheme creativity
- -0.03
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 51%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 46
- Effective contributors
- 2.55
- Top player's share
- 57%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.53
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- CIN,PHI,HOU
- Window matchup
- -0.02
- Opponents after
- IND,BAL
- After matchup
- -0.46
- Flip edge
- +0.45
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 7
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.26
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
12
Points
95.0
Per game
7.92
17-gm pace
135
Best / worst
14.2 / 2.7
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7.9 | TE17 | 4 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | TE37 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| 3 | 9.1 | TE8 | 7 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| 4 | 7.5 | TE17 | 7 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| 5 | 2.7 | TE35 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| 12 | 11.8 | TE5 | 5 | 5 | 93 | 0 |
| 13 | 12.0 | TE5 | 4 | 3 | 45 | 1 |
| 14 | 4.2 | TE21 | 6 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| 15 | 3.1 | TE35 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| 16 | 12.4 | TE10 | 7 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| 17 | 6.9 | TE19 | 5 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| 18 | 14.2 | TE5 | 6 | 6 | 52 | 1 |