RB
Bijan Robinson
ATLRB2 · overall #2 · tier 1 · age 24
Projected points
253
16.6/gm
Value over replacement
143
repl 116
Range
205–301
sd 48
Week
20.4
@ NO
The take
written by hand
16.8 carries a game, more than anyone, plus 5.5 targets. I'm RB2 and the room's RB2, so there's nothing to argue about.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 5.8
- Carries / game
- 15.5
- Receptions / game
- 4.5
- Rec yards / game
- 36
- Rush yards / game
- 71
- Rush TD / game
- 0.48
- Rec TD / game
- 0.14
- Total TD / game
- 0.62
- Games projected
- 15.2
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 20.2
- Games of history
- 51
- Age multiplier
- 1.022
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.6
- Projected plays / game
- 61.7
- Projected pass rate
- 56%
- OL run block
- +0.05
- OL pass protection
- +0.17
- OL continuity
- 82%
- 2TE rate
- 29%
- 3WR rate
- 64%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 40%
- Run friendly
- +0.35
- Scheme creativity
- -0.20
- Play action / motion
- 17% / 66%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 37
- Effective contributors
- 1.87
- Top player's share
- 65%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.40
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy low
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- NO,BAL,CHI
- Window matchup
- -0.24
- Opponents after
- SF,TB,CIN
- After matchup
- +0.13
- Flip edge
- -0.37
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 11
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.38
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
291.8
Per game
17.16
17-gm pace
292
Best / worst
34.9 / 2.8
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18.4 | RB2 | 12 | 24 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 100 | 1 |
| 2 | 16.8 | RB6 | 22 | 143 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| 3 | 11.1 | RB16 | 13 | 72 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| 4 | 24.1 | RB4 | 17 | 75 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 106 | 0 |
| 6 | 29.8 | RB2 | 19 | 170 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| 7 | 15.2 | RB12 | 14 | 40 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 52 | 1 |
| 8 | 2.8 | RB43 | 9 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| 9 | 9.6 | RB20 | 12 | 46 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| 10 | 8.8 | RB25 | 17 | 84 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 | 26.3 | RB4 | 23 | 104 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| 12 | 12.7 | RB14 | 14 | 70 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| 13 | 25.3 | RB1 | 23 | 142 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| 14 | 7.4 | RB33 | 20 | 86 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 | 21.5 | RB6 | 19 | 93 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| 16 | 22.8 | RB6 | 16 | 76 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 92 | 1 |
| 17 | 34.9 | RB2 | 22 | 195 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
| 18 | 4.3 | RB40 | 15 | 33 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |