Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Amon-Ra St. Brown

DET

WR3 · overall #6 · tier 1 · age 26

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Projected points

234

15.4/gm

Value over replacement

124

repl 115

Range

173–295

sd 61

Week

16.4

vs NO

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
9.7
Carries / game
0.2
Receptions / game
6.7
Rec yards / game
82
Rush yards / game
1
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.67
Total TD / game
0.67
Games projected
15.2
Observed pts/gm (history)
19.1
Games of history
66
Age multiplier
1.009
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.5
Projected plays / game
62.6
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.86
OL pass protection
+0.77
OL continuity
43%
2TE rate
33%
3WR rate
64%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
-0.25
Scheme creativity
-0.09
Play action / motion
28% / 60%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
59
Effective contributors
2.70
Top player's share
51%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.70

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
NO,BUF,NYJ
Window matchup
+0.98
Opponents after
CAR,ARI
After matchup
+0.27
Flip edge
+0.71
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.19

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

265.5

Per game

15.62

17-gm pace

266

Best / worst

34.9 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
16.56445000
234.7119115327
317.28777100
422.57770200
514.098100000
69.210945012
717.610686100
914.213997000
1014.38558100
115.212242000
1225.4139149100
130.0100000
1412.29692000
1534.91813164200
167.49454000
1710.813868000
1819.41511139000