WR
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DETWR1 · overall #5 · tier 1 · age 26
Projected points
243
16.0/gm
Value over replacement
130
repl 119
Range
182–304
sd 61
Week
20.2
@ CAR
The take
written by hand
9.7 targets a game across 15.2 of them, which is the most dependable combination in the tier. No disagreement here and I don't need one.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 10.2
- Carries / game
- 0.2
- Receptions / game
- 7.0
- Rec yards / game
- 85
- Rush yards / game
- 1
- Rush TD / game
- 0.00
- Rec TD / game
- 0.67
- Total TD / game
- 0.67
- Games projected
- 15.2
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 19.1
- Games of history
- 66
- Age multiplier
- 1.009
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.5
- Projected plays / game
- 62.4
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- +0.69
- OL pass protection
- +0.61
- OL continuity
- 43%
- 2TE rate
- 33%
- 3WR rate
- 64%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- -0.24
- Scheme creativity
- -0.09
- Play action / motion
- 28% / 60%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 59
- Effective contributors
- 2.70
- Top player's share
- 51%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.70
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- CAR,ARI
- Window matchup
- +0.38
- Opponents after
- GB,MIN,MIA
- After matchup
- +0.06
- Flip edge
- +0.32
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 6
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.22
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
207.0
Per game
12.18
17-gm pace
207
Best / worst
30.2 / 0.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4.5 | WR48 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 30.2 | WR1 | 11 | 9 | 115 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | 13.7 | WR9 | 8 | 7 | 77 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 19.0 | WR4 | 7 | 7 | 70 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 10.0 | WR19 | 9 | 8 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 4.7 | WR41 | 10 | 9 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 7 | 14.6 | WR12 | 10 | 6 | 86 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 9.7 | WR23 | 13 | 9 | 97 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 11.8 | WR19 | 8 | 5 | 58 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 4.2 | WR44 | 12 | 2 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 20.9 | WR3 | 13 | 9 | 149 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 0.0 | WR108 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 9.2 | WR20 | 9 | 6 | 92 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 28.4 | WR1 | 18 | 13 | 164 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 5.4 | WR40 | 9 | 4 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 6.8 | WR31 | 13 | 8 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 13.9 | WR7 | 15 | 11 | 139 | 0 | 0 | 0 |