Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Alvin Kamara

NO

RB46 · overall #145 · tier 8 · age 31

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Projected points

87

6.8/gm

Value over replacement

-1

repl 110

Range

25–150

sd 62

Week

5.2

@ DET

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
3.3
Carries / game
6.7
Receptions / game
2.6
Rec yards / game
18
Rush yards / game
27
Rush TD / game
0.18
Rec TD / game
0.04
Total TD / game
0.22
Games projected
12.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
14.2
Games of history
53
Age multiplier
0.857
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
31.6
Projected plays / game
62.9
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-0.09
OL pass protection
+0.23
OL continuity
78%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
69%
1st-down pass rate
47%
Run friendly
-0.26
Scheme creativity
-0.31
Play action / motion
19% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
3.59
Top player's share
44%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
DET,BAL,LV
Window matchup
-0.30
Opponents after
ATL,MIN,NYG
After matchup
+0.35
Flip edge
-0.65
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
8
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.75

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

11

Points

84.2

Per game

7.65

17-gm pace

130

Best / worst

13.0 / 0.2

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
112.71145122120
213.02199066210
36.11842021140
49.2157005420
57.5827064280
610.11031055450
74.4112803310
85.5621022240
90.261403130
1013.02283033320
122.531102240