Alvin Kamara

Cut toward the market at Matt's direction. Native RB38 on 8.01/g against ADP RB53 and ECR RB57 -- both markets 15-19 ranks lower and neither pricing anything exotic, just a 31-year-old backup off his worst season. His line: 12.21/g, 15.04, 16.52, then 7.65 in 2025 on 11 games. He is DEPTH 2 behind Travis Etienne at 21% of the New Orleans backfield. THE CUT IS SIZED ON OUR OWN MEASUREMENT, not on the market gap. carry_age_probe measured the model over-projecting carries by 11.4% for backs aged 31+, held out over seven seasons; Kamara is 31 and sits exactly in that bucket. 8.01 x 0.886 is 7.10, and 7.1 x 13.0 games is 92, which lands RB43. Matt asked for around RB50, so 83.0 goes FURTHER than the measured bias alone justifies -- 6.38/g. The extra is his read that a 31-year-old second back behind a 27-year-old lead is worth less than the arithmetic says, and it still sits above both markets. Recorded as a judgement on top of a measurement rather than folded into it, because the two are different claims. Written as a RATE claim. The dispute is not how many games he plays -- 13.0 is already damped -- it is that a 31-year-old second back is being credited with a rate the age bias says we systematically overstate.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.