Alec Pierce

Raised 123.8 -> 129.0 (WR44 -> WR38), the one genuine finding from triaging the audit's 46 market disagreements. A RATE CLAIM -- fantasy_points only; his 14.7 games carry no designation now that the August PUP has resolved, and are not in dispute. THE DECAY BLEND IS DRAGGING A RISING PLAYER BACK, which is the Blake Corum instrument at receiver. His half-PPR seasons run 5.74, 4.67, 8.93, 10.65 -- a clear ascent -- and USAGE_DECAY_BY_POS['WR'] of 0.50 blends a career that no longer describes him. The model lands 8.42/g, BELOW BOTH of his last two seasons. His targets are treated sanely (5.26 against 4.31 and 5.60); it is the scoring rate the blend holds down. EVERY OUTSIDE SOURCE IS ABOVE US, which is unusual for a player with no injury and no role question: ADP WR31, consensus WR34, ECR WR40, Underdog WR44, and Sleeper projects 150.9 -- 10.27/g, essentially his 2025 rate. He is Indianapolis's depth-1 receiver on the highest WR snap share on the team, 0.843. GAMES PINNED AT 14.7, THE MODEL'S OWN, and that was the second try. Written as a bare total the raise went entirely to GAMES -- 14.7 to 15.3, rate unmoved at 8.43, so he did not move a rank -- because his availability carries damping and split_override gives games first claim on undoing it. Wrong factor: the argument is that his SCORING RATE is held down by a career blend, not that he plays more. 129.0 over a pinned 14.7 is 8.77/g, which is STILL BELOW his 2024 of 8.93 and a long way under his 2025 of 10.65. So this concedes the least defensible part of the gap rather than matching anyone: it lands WR38, inside the market's own spread of 31 to 44 and below the middle of it. It should help the dynasty board too, where we are low on him for the same reason -- 136 against a market median of 90 -- without needing a dynasty row of its own.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.