RB
Aaron Jones
MINRB20 · overall #35 · tier 5 · age 31
Projected points
164
12.1/gm
Value over replacement
66
repl 116
Range
126–202
sd 38
Week
11.8
vs MIA
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 3.4
- Carries / game
- 15.0
- Receptions / game
- 2.6
- Rec yards / game
- 19
- Rush yards / game
- 66
- Rush TD / game
- 0.21
- Rec TD / game
- 0.11
- Total TD / game
- 0.32
- Games projected
- 13.5
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 12.0
- Games of history
- 57
- Age multiplier
- 0.857
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.1
- Projected plays / game
- 61.1
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- -0.05
- OL pass protection
- +0.10
- OL continuity
- 76%
- 2TE rate
- 27%
- 3WR rate
- 63%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- -0.76
- Scheme creativity
- +0.22
- Play action / motion
- 26% / 52%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 51
- Effective contributors
- 2.70
- Top player's share
- 46%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.58
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy low
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- MIA,NO
- Window matchup
- +0.54
- Opponents after
- IND,DET,BUF
- After matchup
- +0.33
- Flip edge
- +0.21
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 6
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.87
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
12
Points
90.7
Per game
7.56
17-gm pace
128
Best / worst
12.9 / 0.5
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12.7 | RB15 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| 2 | 2.3 | RB54 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 3.0 | RB39 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| 9 | 9.8 | RB18 | 9 | 78 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| 10 | 12.9 | RB13 | 9 | 47 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| 11 | 8.1 | RB29 | 16 | 70 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| 12 | 5.7 | RB29 | 9 | 41 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| 13 | 0.5 | RB71 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| 14 | 7.6 | RB31 | 14 | 76 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 6.5 | RB34 | 12 | 34 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| 16 | 9.3 | RB26 | 21 | 85 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 | 12.3 | RB15 | 18 | 53 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0 |