Xavier Smith

WR241 · overall #571 · tier – · age 29

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Projected points

1.6/gm

Value over replacement

-84

repl 119

Range

1–45

sd 22

Week

0.5

@ PHI

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Per game Season total

Targets / game: 1.0
Carries / game: 0.1
Receptions / game: 0.7
Rec yards / game: 10
Rush yards / game: 1
Rush TD / game: 0.00
Rec TD / game: 0.02
Total TD / game: 0.02
Games projected: 14.3
Observed pts/gm (history): 2.2
Games of history: 30
Age multiplier: 0.876
Usage carryover: 1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 33.6
Projected plays / game: 61.9
Projected pass rate: 58%
OL run block: +0.74
OL pass protection: +0.72
OL continuity: 82%
2TE rate: 31%
3WR rate: 69%
1st-down pass rate: 49%
Run friendly: -0.61
Scheme creativity: +1.28
Play action / motion: 32% / 70%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: committee
Ambiguity score: 61
Effective contributors: 3.17
Top player's share: 45%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.74

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: hold
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: PHI,BUF,ARI
Window matchup: -0.23
Opponents after: LV,LAC,WAS
After matchup: +0.35
Flip edge: -0.59
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 11
Playoff schedule (15-17): -0.01

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

30.3

Per game

1.89

17-gm pace

Best / worst

8.2 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds
1	3.6	WR55	1	1	36
2	0.0	WR119	0	0	0
3	0.0	WR120	0	0	0
4	0.0	WR110	0	0	0
5	0.0	WR100	0	0	0
6	0.0	WR99	0	0	0
7	1.5	WR80	3	2	15
9	1.2	WR80	3	2	12
10	1.4	WR76	1	1	14
11	0.8	WR94	2	1	8
13	8.2	WR28	3	3	82
14	0.6	WR87	1	1	6
15	0.0	WR104	0	0	0
16	5.7	WR39	2	2	57
17	6.7	WR33	6	4	67
18	0.6	WR96	2	1	6