Woody Marks
HOURB53 · overall #175 · tier 9 · age 25
Projected points
97
6.7/gm
Value over replacement
-8
repl 116
Range
51–142
sd 46
Week
7.1
vs DAL
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Raised 22 Aug at Matt's read, REVERSING MY OWN RE-PRICING FROM THIS MORNING. The row read 'cut to a 0.60 share behind David Montgomery ... RB53', it had drifted to RB59, and I re-priced it to the RB53 it named -- serving the number instead of asking whether the claim was right. It is the second time today I did that; the first was Jonathon Brooks. The claim does not hold. His only NFL season is 8.32/g on 12.25 carries a game across 16 games as a rookie, and the model has him at 6.37 and 7.98 carries -- 1.95 BELOW his own record, not above it. A 0.60 share is an assertion about a Houston backfield where he has already outproduced it. RB46, level with ADP RB45 and ahead of ECR RB49.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 2.5
- Carries / game
- 8.1
- Receptions / game
- 1.8
- Rec yards / game
- 13
- Rush yards / game
- 30
- Rush TD / game
- 0.16
- Rec TD / game
- 0.08
- Total TD / game
- 0.24
- Games projected
- 14.4
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 9.1
- Games of history
- 16
- Age multiplier
- 1.000
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 32.9
- Projected plays / game
- 61.9
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -1.37
- OL pass protection
- -1.19
- OL continuity
- 64%
- 2TE rate
- 20%
- 3WR rate
- 76%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- -0.36
- Scheme creativity
- -0.30
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 53%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 54
- Effective contributors
- 2.86
- Top player's share
- 49%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.63
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- DAL,TEN,JAX
- Window matchup
- +0.11
- Opponents after
- NYG,LAC
- After matchup
- +0.01
- Flip edge
- +0.11
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 8
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.70
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
16
Points
121.1
Per game
7.57
17-gm pace
129
Best / worst
23.9 / 0.3
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.3 | RB74 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 5.1 | RB36 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 0 |
| 3 | 3.6 | RB46 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| 4 | 23.9 | RB5 | 17 | 69 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 50 | 1 |
| 5 | 2.4 | RB45 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 9.5 | RB20 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| 8 | 11.1 | RB18 | 11 | 62 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| 9 | 2.7 | RB44 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 14.1 | RB11 | 14 | 63 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| 11 | 5.1 | RB37 | 18 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 12 | 6.9 | RB24 | 16 | 74 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 13 | 6.7 | RB39 | 19 | 64 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | 13.6 | RB14 | 26 | 68 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 15 | 3.8 | RB44 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 | 7.5 | RB24 | 19 | 71 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | 4.8 | RB35 | 10 | 48 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |