RB
Ty Johnson
BUFRB65 · overall #262 · tier 9 · age 28
Projected points
54
4.0/gm
Value over replacement
-39
repl 110
Range
28–79
sd 25
Week
3.3
@ HOU
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 21
- Carries
- 34
- Receptions
- 16
- Rec yards
- 156
- Rush yards
- 159
- Rush TD
- 1.4
- Rec TD
- 1.0
- Total TD
- 2.5
- Games projected
- 13.5
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 5.4
- Games of history
- 55
- Age multiplier
- 0.915
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.7
- Projected plays / game
- 61.0
- Projected pass rate
- 55%
- OL run block
- +1.34
- OL pass protection
- +1.30
- OL continuity
- 79%
- 2TE rate
- 28%
- 3WR rate
- 65%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 40%
- Run friendly
- +0.96
- Scheme creativity
- +0.22
- Play action / motion
- 21% / 57%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 8
- Effective contributors
- 1.73
- Top player's share
- 74%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.25
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- HOU,DET,LAC
- Window matchup
- +0.06
- Opponents after
- NE,LA,LV
- After matchup
- +0.28
- Flip edge
- -0.22
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 7
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.20
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
76.3
Per game
4.49
17-gm pace
76
Best / worst
17.6 / 0.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.4 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 0.6 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 1.6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| 8 | 0.6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 8.0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| 10 | 2.6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| 11 | 13.0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 61 | 1 |
| 12 | 5.2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| 13 | 2.5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| 14 | 3.9 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| 15 | 2.8 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| 16 | 7.6 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 4.8 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| 18 | 17.6 | 13 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |