Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

TE

Tucker Kraft

GB

TE7 · overall #69 · tier 2 · age 25

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Projected points

131

9.3/gm

Value over replacement

33

repl 112

Range

86–176

sd 45

Week

6.6

@ TB

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-08-22

Trimmed 22 Aug at Matt's read. This row was rewritten earlier today as 13.3 games x 10.80/g -- a ramp from limited early snaps toward the 12.65/g he ran across eight games in 2025 -- and the ramp reasoning holds. What the rewrite did not check is how far the RESULT sits from his record: 10.79/g against a decay-0.65 weighted 8.69 is +2.10, the largest gap of any tight end on the board. His three seasons read 4.50, 8.10, 12.61, so the whole case rests on eight games. TE7 still prices the breakout as real and most of the ramp, against ADP TE8 and ECR TE6.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
5.4
Carries / game
0.1
Receptions / game
3.9
Rec yards / game
47
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.42
Total TD / game
0.42
Games projected
14.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
10.5
Games of history
39
Age multiplier
1.050
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.1
Projected plays / game
60.5
Projected pass rate
55%
OL run block
-0.62
OL pass protection
-0.44
OL continuity
60%
2TE rate
32%
3WR rate
60%
1st-down pass rate
41%
Run friendly
+0.91
Scheme creativity
+0.54
Play action / motion
23% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
56
Effective contributors
3.04
Top player's share
45%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.69

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
TB,CHI,DAL
Window matchup
+0.19
Opponents after
DET,CAR,NE
After matchup
-0.01
Flip edge
+0.20
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.05

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

8

Points

85.2

Per game

10.65

17-gm pace

181

Best / worst

26.3 / 2.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
17.9TE742161
218.4TE1761241
32.9TE2643290
45.6TE1555560
610.3TE622431
711.8TE8105581
826.3TE1971432
92.0TE3832200