TE
Trey McBride
ARITE1 · overall #20 · tier 1 · age 26
Projected points
195
12.9/gm
Value over replacement
89
repl 112
Range
151–238
sd 44
Week
14.2
@ NYG
The take
written by hand
9.3 targets a game from a tight end, which is receiver volume. TE1 on my board and TE1 on everybody else's.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 9.6
- Carries / game
- 0.0
- Receptions / game
- 7.0
- Rec yards / game
- 70
- Rush yards / game
- 0
- Rush TD / game
- 0.01
- Rec TD / game
- 0.37
- Total TD / game
- 0.38
- Games projected
- 15.1
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 15.0
- Games of history
- 62
- Age multiplier
- 1.030
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.3
- Projected plays / game
- 62.2
- Projected pass rate
- 59%
- OL run block
- -0.14
- OL pass protection
- -0.29
- OL continuity
- 51%
- 2TE rate
- 48%
- 3WR rate
- 52%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 49%
- Run friendly
- -0.40
- Scheme creativity
- +0.44
- Play action / motion
- 25% / 40%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 13
- Effective contributors
- 1.58
- Top player's share
- 78%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.29
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy low
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- NYG,DET,LA
- Window matchup
- +0.00
- Opponents after
- DEN,DAL,SEA
- After matchup
- -0.38
- Flip edge
- +0.38
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 14
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.23
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
189.9
Per game
11.17
17-gm pace
190
Best / worst
25.4 / 2.7
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6.1 | TE17 | 9 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| 2 | 7.8 | TE7 | 7 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| 3 | 10.3 | TE5 | 8 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | TE16 | 11 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| 5 | 4.1 | TE23 | 7 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| 6 | 13.2 | TE2 | 11 | 8 | 72 | 1 |
| 7 | 19.4 | TE3 | 13 | 10 | 74 | 2 |
| 9 | 11.5 | TE6 | 9 | 5 | 55 | 1 |
| 10 | 18.7 | TE1 | 13 | 9 | 127 | 1 |
| 11 | 17.5 | TE2 | 11 | 10 | 115 | 1 |
| 12 | 7.9 | TE5 | 10 | 9 | 79 | 0 |
| 13 | 14.2 | TE2 | 9 | 8 | 82 | 1 |
| 14 | 5.8 | TE15 | 9 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| 15 | 25.4 | TE2 | 13 | 12 | 134 | 2 |
| 16 | 2.7 | TE29 | 8 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| 17 | 13.6 | TE2 | 13 | 10 | 76 | 1 |
| 18 | 6.5 | TE13 | 8 | 7 | 65 | 0 |