Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

QB

Trey Lance

LAC

QB54 · overall #573 · tier – · age 26

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Projected points

44

5.3/gm

Value over replacement

-84

repl 250

Range

24–64

sd 20

Week

0.9

@ SEA

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-08-22

Cut 22 Aug -- QB33 against ECR QB55, and 10.07/g against a decay-weighted 3.82, +6.24, the largest overreach of any quarterback. He is depth 2 behind Justin Herbert and projected 22.6 pass attempts a game, 0.64 of the Chargers' dropbacks, where DEPTH_SHARE['QB'][2] is 0.08. THE UNDERLYING DEFECT IS NOT FIXED and is recorded: the depth reconciliation does not bind for several backup quarterbacks and I could not isolate why -- ruled out shrink_qb_spread (disabling it moved him only 22.62 to 20.18) and missing Sleeper depth (he is listed 2). Low stakes in a one-QB league, which is why this is an override rather than a rushed model change.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Pass attempts
99
Pass yards
718
Pass TD
4.0
Carries
9
Rush yards
42
Rush TD
0.2
Games projected
8.2
Observed pts/gm (history)
3.7
Games of history
10
Age multiplier
1.038
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.4
Projected plays / game
61.1
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+0.45
OL pass protection
+0.57
OL continuity
37%
2TE rate
16%
3WR rate
71%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
-0.07
Scheme creativity
+0.88
Play action / motion
25% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
43
Effective contributors
–
Top player's share
–
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.45

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
SEA,DEN,KC
Window matchup
-0.85
Opponents after
LA,HOU
After matchup
-0.38
Flip edge
-0.47
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
7
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.10

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

4

Points

13.5

Per game

3.38

17-gm pace

58

Best / worst

8.3 / 0.8

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
52.9QB283444001110
111.6QB34383700310
130.8QB3211900440
188.3QB252044136019690