Trey Lance
LACQB54 · overall #573 · tier – · age 26
Projected points
44
5.3/gm
Value over replacement
-84
repl 250
Range
24–64
sd 20
Week
0.9
@ SEA
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Cut 22 Aug -- QB33 against ECR QB55, and 10.07/g against a decay-weighted 3.82, +6.24, the largest overreach of any quarterback. He is depth 2 behind Justin Herbert and projected 22.6 pass attempts a game, 0.64 of the Chargers' dropbacks, where DEPTH_SHARE['QB'][2] is 0.08. THE UNDERLYING DEFECT IS NOT FIXED and is recorded: the depth reconciliation does not bind for several backup quarterbacks and I could not isolate why -- ruled out shrink_qb_spread (disabling it moved him only 22.62 to 20.18) and missing Sleeper depth (he is listed 2). Low stakes in a one-QB league, which is why this is an override rather than a rushed model change.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Pass attempts / game
- 12.0
- Pass yards / game
- 88
- Pass TD / game
- 0.49
- Carries / game
- 1.1
- Rush yards / game
- 5
- Rush TD / game
- 0.02
- Games projected
- 8.2
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 3.7
- Games of history
- 10
- Age multiplier
- 1.038
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.4
- Projected plays / game
- 61.1
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- +0.45
- OL pass protection
- +0.57
- OL continuity
- 37%
- 2TE rate
- 16%
- 3WR rate
- 71%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 45%
- Run friendly
- -0.07
- Scheme creativity
- +0.88
- Play action / motion
- 25% / 52%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 43
- Effective contributors
- –
- Top player's share
- –
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.45
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- SEA,DEN,KC
- Window matchup
- -0.85
- Opponents after
- LA,HOU
- After matchup
- -0.38
- Flip edge
- -0.47
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 7
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.10
2025 game log
full season · Full PPR
Games
4
Points
13.5
Per game
3.38
17-gm pace
58
Best / worst
8.3 / 0.8
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Cmp | Att | Pa Yds | Pa TD | INT | Ru Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2.9 | QB28 | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| 11 | 1.6 | QB34 | 3 | 8 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | 0.8 | QB32 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | 8.3 | QB25 | 20 | 44 | 136 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 69 | 0 |