Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Tetairoa McMillan

CAR

WR16 · overall #45 · tier 5 · age 23

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Projected points

169

11.2/gm

Value over replacement

57

repl 119

Range

119–218

sd 49

Week

9.4

vs DET

The take

written by hand

8.0 targets a game across 15.0 of them at 23, with draft capital behind him. Nothing clever here: it's volume and a clean bill of health.

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-09-03

REASON REWRITTEN 17 Aug; the number is unchanged and still wanted. The old text said 'a modest step up', which was true on 11 Aug and is not now: the model has since climbed to WR9 (185.3) on its own, so this 168.5 is a CUT of 3 ranks, not a raise. Keeping it as a cut is right on the year-2 evidence -- second-year receivers miss ADP by a mean +15.9 with 53% missing by 10+ -- and 168.5 still leaves him above ADP WR16 and ECR WR15. Recorded because an override whose stated direction no longer matches its effect is how the Bo Nix one went stale for ten days. Re-read 3 Sep: no sign of falsification. Board WR17 against ADP WR17 and ECR WR16. The row's own point was that it had become a CUT rather than a raise, and it still is.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
8.1
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
4.8
Rec yards / game
63
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.39
Total TD / game
0.39
Games projected
15.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
12.9
Games of history
17
Age multiplier
1.052
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.7
Projected plays / game
60.0
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.33
OL pass protection
+0.21
OL continuity
71%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
73%
1st-down pass rate
40%
Run friendly
+0.68
Scheme creativity
-0.67
Play action / motion
21% / 40%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
3.79
Top player's share
42%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
DET,PHI
Window matchup
-0.41
Opponents after
TB,GB,DEN
After matchup
-0.48
Flip edge
+0.08
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
5
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.55

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

17

Points

143.4

Per game

8.44

17-gm pace

143

Best / worst

25.0 / 0.5

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
16.8WR329568000
210.0WR29106100000
34.8WR448348000
46.2WR378462000
57.3WR358673000
614.9WR105329200
73.3WR565333000
89.9WR1810799000
94.6WR476446000
106.0WR368560000
1125.0WR1128130200
129.5WR217235100
1310.3WR202143100
152.5WR754225000
1613.3WR1310673100
170.5WR107415000
188.5WR186485000