Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Ryan Flournoy

DAL

WR123 · overall #286 · tier – · age 26

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Projected points

63

4.7/gm

Value over replacement

-37

repl 119

Range

16–110

sd 47

Week

3.7

@ HOU

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
3.1
Carries / game
0.3
Receptions / game
2.0
Rec yards / game
25
Rush yards / game
2
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.18
Total TD / game
0.18
Games projected
13.4
Observed pts/gm (history)
6.3
Games of history
24
Age multiplier
1.009
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
31.0
Projected plays / game
64.1
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+0.24
OL pass protection
+0.09
OL continuity
86%
2TE rate
20%
3WR rate
72%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
-0.93
Scheme creativity
-0.33
Play action / motion
22% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
3.92
Top player's share
35%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
HOU,TB,GB
Window matchup
-0.24
Opponents after
PHI,ARI,IND
After matchup
+0.19
Flip edge
-0.44
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
14
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.35

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

15

Points

74.0

Per game

4.93

17-gm pace

84

Best / worst

17.5 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
20.0WR119000000
32.1WR793221000
42.6WR6422140112
512.4WR13961140210
63.3WR496330013
70.0WR101000000
80.7WR83217000
97.2WR342212100
116.2WR28112100
120.0WR97100000
133.4WR513334000
1417.5WR6139115100
154.0WR555440000
167.8WR312218100
186.8WR257568000