Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

TE

Riley Nowakowski

PITROOKIE R5

TE140 · overall #624 · tier

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Projected points

9

0.6/gm

Value over replacement

-95

repl 111

Range

0–27

sd 18

Week

0.5

vs ATL

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
0.4
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
0.3
Rec yards / game
3
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.02
Total TD / game
0.02
Games projected
14.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
Games of history
0
Age multiplier
1.000
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.5
Projected plays / game
61.4
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-0.48
OL pass protection
+0.07
OL continuity
79%
2TE rate
45%
3WR rate
52%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
-0.86
Scheme creativity
-0.30
Play action / motion
21% / 51%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach, committee
Ambiguity score
95
Effective contributors
2.97
Top player's share
36%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
2.30

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
ATL,NE,CIN
Window matchup
+0.13
Opponents after
CLE,IND,TB
After matchup
+0.14
Flip edge
-0.02
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
9
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.28

Last season game log

week by week

No 2025-season weekly record for Riley Nowakowski — rookies and players who did not record a stat line have none.