Rico Dowdle
PITRB28 · overall #65 · tier 7 · age 28
Projected points
137
10.3/gm
Value over replacement
41
repl 116
Range
57–218
sd 80
Week
3.6
@ CLE
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Raised 22 Aug at Matt's read. The model had him RB37 on 10.53 carries a game, BELOW both of his last two seasons (14.69 in 2024, 13.88 in 2025) and below his own scoring in each (11.39 and 11.69/g against a projected 8.70). The cut is `depth_order` 2 behind Jaylen Warren doing the work, and the depth chart is being read as a share when the evidence says a split: his own news item on this board reads 'Dowdle and Jaylen Warren split first-team running back reps across the Steelers' first two training camp practices'. Both markets agree -- ADP has Warren RB27 and Dowdle RB30, three apart, where the board had ten. RB30 is level with ADP and ECR, not ahead of them.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 2.8
- Carries / game
- 12.9
- Receptions / game
- 2.2
- Rec yards / game
- 15
- Rush yards / game
- 55
- Rush TD / game
- 0.20
- Rec TD / game
- 0.09
- Total TD / game
- 0.29
- Games projected
- 13.3
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 11.7
- Games of history
- 51
- Age multiplier
- 0.915
- Usage carryover
- 0.90
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.5
- Projected plays / game
- 61.4
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -0.51
- OL pass protection
- +0.02
- OL continuity
- 65%
- 2TE rate
- 45%
- 3WR rate
- 52%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 45%
- Run friendly
- -0.86
- Scheme creativity
- -0.29
- Play action / motion
- 21% / 51%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach
- Ambiguity score
- 86
- Effective contributors
- 2.14
- Top player's share
- 60%
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 1.91
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- CLE,IND,TB
- Window matchup
- -0.14
- Opponents after
- NO,CLE
- After matchup
- -0.09
- Flip edge
- -0.05
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 9
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.21
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
177.3
Per game
10.43
17-gm pace
177
Best / worst
29.9 / 1.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.6 | RB53 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 2 | 1.9 | RB57 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| 3 | 9.8 | RB19 | 10 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| 4 | 3.0 | RB50 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 5 | 29.4 | RB1 | 23 | 206 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| 6 | 29.9 | RB1 | 30 | 183 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 56 | 1 |
| 7 | 9.6 | RB19 | 17 | 79 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| 8 | 5.4 | RB33 | 8 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 26.1 | RB2 | 25 | 130 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| 10 | 12.3 | RB14 | 18 | 53 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| 11 | 10.0 | RB23 | 19 | 45 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| 12 | 7.4 | RB23 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| 13 | 7.9 | RB35 | 18 | 58 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| 15 | 11.4 | RB19 | 16 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 | 4.3 | RB47 | 9 | 29 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| 17 | 6.3 | RB30 | 12 | 59 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | 1.0 | RB70 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |