RB
Rhamondre Stevenson
NERB23 · overall #38 · tier 6 · age 28
Projected points
161
11.8/gm
Value over replacement
62
repl 116
Range
115–208
sd 47
Week
8.2
@ BUF
The take
written by hand
A play on a committee the room isn't pricing. I have him at 12.8 carries to Henderson's 9.8, and he takes the short-yardage work. Henderson is clearly the more explosive player; I'm just not projecting that he's handed the keys.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 3.7
- Carries / game
- 12.7
- Receptions / game
- 3.0
- Rec yards / game
- 21
- Rush yards / game
- 53
- Rush TD / game
- 0.45
- Rec TD / game
- 0.07
- Total TD / game
- 0.52
- Games projected
- 13.7
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 12.8
- Games of history
- 58
- Age multiplier
- 0.915
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.3
- Projected plays / game
- 60.1
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -0.38
- OL pass protection
- -0.39
- OL continuity
- 72%
- 2TE rate
- 31%
- 3WR rate
- 57%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 43%
- Run friendly
- +0.11
- Scheme creativity
- -0.58
- Play action / motion
- 21% / 48%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 52
- Effective contributors
- 2.72
- Top player's share
- 49%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.58
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy now, flip wk7
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- BUF,LV,NYJ
- Window matchup
- +0.41
- Opponents after
- CHI,MIA,GB
- After matchup
- -0.14
- Flip edge
- +0.55
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 11
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.41
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
14
Points
146.8
Per game
10.49
17-gm pace
178
Best / worst
33.3 / 1.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.7 | RB43 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| 2 | 16.2 | RB9 | 11 | 54 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 88 | 0 |
| 3 | 1.6 | RB62 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| 4 | 4.1 | RB47 | 9 | 38 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 5 | 12.7 | RB16 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| 6 | 1.8 | RB53 | 13 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 14.8 | RB13 | 18 | 88 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 4.9 | RB36 | 14 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| 12 | 1.0 | RB53 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 | 8.0 | RB33 | 12 | 40 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| 15 | 7.7 | RB30 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| 16 | 15.8 | RB13 | 8 | 51 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| 17 | 22.2 | RB7 | 8 | 47 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 55 | 1 |
| 18 | 33.3 | RB1 | 7 | 131 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |