RB
Ray Davis
BUFRB55 · overall #204 · tier 8 · age 26
Projected points
77
5.1/gm
Value over replacement
-26
repl 110
Range
43–110
sd 33
Week
4.7
@ HOU
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 19
- Carries
- 79
- Receptions
- 15
- Rec yards
- 135
- Rush yards
- 348
- Rush TD
- 1.7
- Rec TD
- 1.7
- Total TD
- 3.4
- Games projected
- 15.0
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 4.8
- Games of history
- 34
- Age multiplier
- 0.953
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.7
- Projected plays / game
- 61.0
- Projected pass rate
- 55%
- OL run block
- +1.34
- OL pass protection
- +1.30
- OL continuity
- 79%
- 2TE rate
- 28%
- 3WR rate
- 65%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 40%
- Run friendly
- +0.96
- Scheme creativity
- +0.22
- Play action / motion
- 21% / 57%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 8
- Effective contributors
- 1.73
- Top player's share
- 74%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.25
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- HOU,DET,LAC
- Window matchup
- +0.06
- Opponents after
- NE,LA,LV
- After matchup
- +0.28
- Flip edge
- -0.22
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 7
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.20
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
17
Points
59.1
Per game
3.48
17-gm pace
59
Best / worst
24.4 / 0.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 8.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| 8 | 1.6 | 9 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 0.3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 6.2 | 9 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 | 4.4 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| 17 | 2.1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 | 24.4 | 21 | 151 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |