Ray Davis

BUF

RB124 · overall #415 · tier – · age 26

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Projected points

3.5/gm

Value over replacement

-56

repl 116

Range

19–86

sd 33

Week

1.6

vs NE

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Per game Season total

Targets: 13
Carries: 55
Receptions: 10
Rec yards: 91
Rush yards: 240
Rush TD: 1.1
Rec TD: 1.3
Total TD: 2.4
Games projected: 15.0
Observed pts/gm (history): 4.8
Games of history: 34
Age multiplier: 0.953
Usage carryover: 1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 34.7
Projected plays / game: 61.1
Projected pass rate: 55%
OL run block: +1.32
OL pass protection: +1.30
OL continuity: 78%
2TE rate: 28%
3WR rate: 65%
1st-down pass rate: 40%
Run friendly: +0.97
Scheme creativity: +0.23
Play action / motion: 21% / 57%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: clear lead
Ambiguity score: 8
Effective contributors: 1.73
Top player's share: 74%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.25

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: sell high
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: NE,LA,LV
Window matchup: +0.49
Opponents after: BAL,MIN
After matchup: -0.52
Flip edge: +1.02
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 7
Playoff schedule (15-17): +0.26

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

54.1

Per game

3.18

17-gm pace

Best / worst

23.4 / -0.2

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Att	Ru Yds	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds	Re TD
1	0.1	RB80	1	2	1	1	-1	0
2	2.4	RB51	9	24	0	0	0	0
3	0.0	RB76	0	0	1	0	0	0
4	0.3	RB68	1	3	0	0	0	0
5	0.1	RB69	2	1	0	0	0	0
6	7.9	RB18	0	0	2	2	19	1
8	1.6	RB51	9	16	1	0	0	0
9	0.0	RB66	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	-0.2	RB79	2	-2	2	1	0	0
11	0.0	RB74	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	6.0	RB27	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	6.2	RB41	9	62	0	0	0	0
14	0.0	RB71	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	1.3	RB64	0	0	1	1	13	0
16	3.4	RB52	3	14	2	2	20	0
17	1.6	RB60	1	4	1	1	12	0
18	23.4	RB2	21	151	2	2	23	1